"Kids WellnesscastTM" Delta County - September 2012

The Ascel Bio Kids Wellcast™ provides information for parents and caregivers that can help protect children from illness. The Kids Wellcast™ is used as a tool to prevent exposure to harmful infectious agents that may keep children out of school and daycare and cause parents to take time off from work. For more information on the infection risks presented below and ways to protect your visit the medical professionals serving your community at the Department of Pediatrics and Delta County Memorial Hospital.

• Overall, the activity level for all pediatric infectious diseases expected to be MODERATE for September through October.

• Reactive Airway/asthma exacerbations are expected to increase sharply in September and we have already seen cases in the pediatrics clinic. Close follow up with your physician is recommended to ensure proper use of preventive medications.

• Acute upper respiratory tract infections, including croup, is expected to peak in September due to rhinovirus and parainfluenza.

• Enterovirus infection is expected to continue at peak levels this month. Enterovirus causes diarrheal disease.

• Laboratory confirmed pertussis (whooping cough) continues to be reported on the Front Range, as previously forecasted by the Black Canyon Forecast Station. Vaccination of children per CDC guidelines is strongly recommended.

• Risk of West Nile virus infection is expected to peak in September and dramatically decrease in October. CDC recommends the use of DEET mosquito repellent if traveling in an area with mosquitoes. Several cases of meningitis and encephalitis have been reported in Delta County over the last week.

• Rabies activity in animals is expected to peak in September.

• Food-borne illness activity due to Campylobacter, E. coli, Salmonella, and Listeria is expected to peak through September. Community vigilance is recommended when preparing and consuming food to reduce risk of exposure to food-borne pathogens with the potential to cause serious illness.

PUBLIC NOTICE & DISCLAIMER: Medicine is an imperfect art, and forecasting disease outbreaks is an inexact science. Every reasonable effort has been made by Ascel Bio to produce accurate forecasts, but these are published "as is" without any warranty whatsoever. Ascel Bio makes no warrantee that its forecasts will be error free, or that errors will be corrected. Ascel Bio makes no warrantee, express or implied regarding the accuracy of its products, including this Delta County Kids WellnesscastTM. In no event shall Ascel Bio be liable to any person enterprise or entity for damages, including consequential or incidental damages arising out of the use of this Delta County Kids WellnesscastTM. All clinical decisions made on the bases of this Delta County Kids WellnesscastTMare the sole responsibility of the user.


Delta County Memorial Hospital is a 49 bed acute care hospital founded in Delta, Colorado in 1920. Over the past 90 years it has evolved from a 6 bed hospital to the current 49 bed facility, built in 2004. The hospital is JCAHCO acredited and employs over 500 staff and has 60 active and consulting physicians.

Contact: Kathy Sramek
Education/Marketing Director
Delta County Memorial Hospital


Ascel Bio is a United States based commercial disease forecasting company supporting clinicians on the front lines. Our mission is to half global morbidity and mortality of hundreds of infectious diseases by the year 2035. Ascel Bio's core products are forecasts and alerts. These are used to eliminate the guesswork of disease seasonality, anticipate demand for care, aid the diagnostic process, support decision making, and improve quality of life.

Contact: James M. Wilson V, M.D.
Managing Partner
Ascel Bio LLC
Email jwilson@ascelbio.com
Phone (571) 225-3671